American Capital and Russian Government: Speculation on Peace
February 12 negotiations between Trump and Putin on Ukraine. At the latest meetings in the Kremlin, with or without Putin, the question of the desirability of peace with Ukraine was actively discussed. In principle, now everyone around the beloved president is already for peace. The number of state officials, who 10 days ago were firmly in favor of continuing the war, has now significantly decreased, and many of them have already become convinced supporters of peace. The economic situation in the country and political moods within it are forcing a rapid turn towards peace. The National Welfare Fund (NWF) of Russia is experiencing a significant reduction in liquid assets. For three years of war with Ukraine, the Russian government covered part of the military expenses from this fund. It also used free cash for military operations through domestic loans, and in addition, there was a sale of OFZ (Russian government bonds). But it is important to note that without foreign capital and loans, the Russian government could not have lasted until today. Commercial banking giants place Russian securities on Asian and Arab markets to attract loans. American and some European funds supported the liquidity of Russian securities for as long as possible, especially while payments on loans (so-called indirect investments) were made regularly. As soon as Russian pseudo-autocracy and its controlled corporations began announcing deferrals of dividend payments, the entire world bourgeoisie with financial interests in Russia was stirred! Interest payments wavered—payment of interest on borrowed capital was called into question.
The thing is, until 2022, Wall Street, and European hedge funds with private capital, invested around 630 billion dollars in Russia over just 8 years. [see https://molfar.com/en/blog/zahidni-investory-u-rosiiskii-nafti]. Investments went into almost all sectors of the economy and corporations: Gazprom, Rosneft, Sberbank, VTB, Transneft, Alrosa, Lukoil, Tatneft, Novatek, Norilsk Nickel, Polis Zolota, etc.
“Directly in the first days of the military actions in Ukraine in February 2022, when Russian goods and securities were extremely devalued and found no buyers at all, the Morgan Bank bought Russian securities at the lowest price. After the panic storm passed, the securities returned to their previous level. Securities are not representative of companies that have collapsed or are inflated. Their devaluation during crises acts as a powerful means of centralizing financial property.” [The Power of Self-Seekers & Grabbers Chapter XIV Ukraine]
The deferral of dividends means possible changes in the structure of financial flows, suppose if all these investment funds are withdrawn from Russia, inevitable consequences will follow for the global market. And these consequences will hit Russia’s monetary circulation the hardest and cause tremendous harm to the very “allies”-investors. The war with Ukraine, exposing the entire rottenness of Russian semi-autocracy, has finally undermined its credit, even among the “friendly and allied” bourgeoisie. First, the war demonstrated Russia’s military weakness; second, the continuous string of defeats, each more severe than the last, showed the hopelessness of the war and the inevitable collapse of the entire government system of the country; third, the significant rise in internal dissatisfaction in Russia causes mortal fear in American capital and European right-wingers, which threatens to lead to social unrest that could ignite Europe as well. All the grounds for this are present. All these circumstances together have led to the refusal of further indirect investments. A recent attempt by the Russian government to borrow, in the old way, about 50 billion dollars on the Chinese market failed: on one hand, capital does not trust pseudo-autocracy; on the other hand, fearing social unrest, capital wants to pressure the Russian government to conclude peace with Ukraine and peace with the pro-Western liberal Russian bourgeoisie. American ruling circles and European right-wingers are speculating on peace. The bourgeoisie, not only in Russia but also in Europe, has begun to understand the link between war and social unrest, and has started to fear a genuinely popular and victorious movement against the established order. The bourgeoisie seeks to maintain “public order”—the meekness of the people—based on the exploitation of society from excessive upheavals, wants to preserve the Russian regime in its current form, and therefore speculates on peace in the interests of anti-proletarian and anti-revolutionary goals. This undeniable fact clearly shows us how even such a “simple” and clear question as war and peace cannot be correctly addressed if the class antagonism of modern society is overlooked, if it is not understood that the bourgeoisie, in all its actions, no matter how democratic and humanitarian they may seem, is primarily and foremost protecting the interests of its own class, the interests of “social peace,” i.e., the interests of suppressing and disarming all the oppressed classes. The approach to the question of peace from the perspective of the working class must also inevitably differ and should differ from the bourgeois-democratic approach to this question, just as it does with regard to free trade, anti-clericalism, etc. The working class will always fight unyieldingly against war, never forgetting, however, that the destruction of wars is possible only alongside the complete destruction of the division of society into classes. Under the preservation of class domination, wars cannot be evaluated solely from a democratically sentimental perspective, and when there is war between exploitative nations, it is necessary to distinguish between the role of the progressive and reactionary bourgeoisie of each nation. The American slogan “peace at any cost” has become the slogan of Wall Street and the reactionaries. This slogan indicates the necessity of peace to save the Russian government. Speculation on peace to suppress social unrest within Russia has come before us in full view.
To what extent the Russian government fears international capital can be seen, among other things, from the latest diplomatic games and events in Russia’s economy. Is Russia solvent? The financial tricks of Messrs. Siluanov, Nabiullina, and the corporations are evident. They manage in perpetual loss. They only wiggle deeper into debt, while the proceeds from loans are temporarily placed, from one loan to another, in the state treasury and on the “gold reserves” of the Central Bank, triumphantly pointing to them as “free cash.” Loans obtained from trading Russian securities on the markets are presented to everyone as proof of Russia’s wealth and solvency! The increase in Russia’s debt burden occurs through both domestic and external debts. Domestic debts primarily include obligations to national credit institutions, banks, and private investors. The Russian government, together with the friendly company VTB, Gazprombank, and Sberbank, receives a significant portion of free cash from the population’s deposits; the highest deposit interest rate as of February 14, 2025, is 24% per annum, while the Central Bank’s rate is 21%. Russia’s police regime resembles the infamous Amber family of swindlers. In fact, Russian banks use dishonest marketing in relation to their clients.
Example: VTB Bank “Double Benefit Deposit” [read “Milking Cow”]
A deposit can only be opened at VTB offices within 14 calendar days after signing the PDS agreement, with an initial deposit of at least 30,000 rubles. To open the deposit at the bank’s office, you must present a document confirming the payment of the initial deposit, indicating the contract number and date.
The deposit amount should not exceed the amount of the initial deposit in the PDS under which you open the deposit.
One deposit can only be opened within a single PDS contract.
The deposit is non-replenishable and cannot be partially withdrawn.
Interest will be paid at the end of the deposit term.
In case of termination of the PDS agreement within 14 calendar days from the date of its conclusion, the deposit interest rate will be reduced to 0.01% per annum.Considering the minimal increase in the prices of goods (12% over the year) and minimal inflation (15% per year), the calculations showed:
- Loss of purchasing power: 7,560 rubles
- Real value of the invested 30,000 rubles after a year: 22,440 rubles
Thus, despite the interest accrued on the deposit, the rise in prices and inflation significantly reduce the real value of money, decreasing its purchasing power.
If today you can buy a shirt for, say, 30,000 rubles, then in a year, even with the interest on the deposit, due to inflation and price increases, its cost will rise, and your savings will devalue.
In 370 days, your 30,000 rubles, considering the price increase, will actually be worth 22,440 rubles in real terms. That means the same shirt will already cost more, and you might only be able to buy two-thirds of what you could afford today with that money.
And if we add the increase in utility prices, the cost of living, and corporate markups: the shirt will cost 41,100 rubles.
The amount in the deposit after 370 days (24% per year): 37,298.63 rubles.
Conclusion: The real increase in prices exceeds even the high interest rates on deposits.
The cost of living is rising faster than the yield on a bank deposit.
Even if your money nominally increased, its purchasing power has decreased.
As a result, a bank deposit is not protection against inflation, but merely a way to lose money more slowly; meanwhile, you are essentially lending money to the government without interest through banks!
Let’s return to external debt.
These obligations arise through the issuance of government bonds (OFZ), which are actively used by the Russian government to cover the budget deficit and finance state expenses. Internal debt is constantly increasing, as a significant portion of funds is directed to repay previous debt obligations, creating a vicious cycle. Russia’s external debt burden also remains high. The main external creditors of the country are Chinese banks [I.E. China Development Bank], other Asian financial institutions, as well as Arab states and several Western countries with which Russia still maintains economic ties, despite international sanctions. Agreements on new loans and the use of government bonds to attract funds from international investors continue to increase the external debt.
Any economist knows that a loan must be repaid, and the coverage of these loans is unknown, as are the terms of these secret agreements. One thing is clear: referring to reserves—essentially borrowed, unsecured money—does not say anything about Russia’s wealth; it’s laughable. It is clear that the Russian administration keeps everything hidden from the people. And let’s assume that the reserve covering these loans exists; however, no representatives of the people in Russia, especially from the working class who are constantly exploited by the “noble” exploiters, have bothered to ask, “What are your assets and liabilities? What is the credit and debit? What is the amount of debt and what secures it?” Or, more simply, is this reserve really yours, or is it borrowed and needs to be repaid, and if so, how can the “modern nobles” and “new tsars” repay it? In fact, it would be worth checking not only the infamous reserve covering these debts but also the entire financial system of the pseudo-autocracy. Such an audit would likely be a resonant case that would pin to the shameful pillar the pompous phrases about “the revival of the Tsarist Empire” and “achieving the goals of the Special Military Operation,” which, in reality, led to the deployment of French and English troops near Belgorod, Kursk, and Voronezh, and, in addition, led to intense hatred from a people close in language, culture, and history.
“At the head of one warring side stands the American-English corporate monopoly group, which deceives European nations, assuring them that they are waging war to protect the Homeland, freedom, and the culture of ‘European democracy,’ to liberate the oppressed peoples from Russian pseudo-tsarism, and to destroy the hated regime in Russia. In reality, corporations worldwide and their governments, together with the clergy, will direct all their efforts in any outcome of the war to support the pseudo-monarchical regime in Russia against the revolution. These monopolistic corporations have always been sycophantic to the regime and are the regime’s staunchest allies, enemies of the revolutionary movement of the working class in Russia, because they know history well and understand what a liberated working class with consciousness and control over state power means. By simultaneously supporting the Russian regime and secretly aiding it, Anglo-American corporations, together with their sycophantic governments in Europe, especially Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, and Romania, have carried out a predatory campaign in Ukraine. First, to loot it completely, and second, to deliver a fatal blow to the unity of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples, sowing enmity between them and drowning the very idea of the liberation of nations from the dictatorship of capital” [The Power of Self-Seekers & Grabbers” Volume I, Chapter I: The Question of War, K.Kirelina & Alex Zarin, 2024].
And here arises the main question: the current semi-tsarist government in Russia is afraid that the liberal bourgeoisie may take advantage of the people’s discontent and initiate an audit of all state finances. This would raise questions such as, “How much does one day of war cost the working class? How much does one bullet cost? Where does the money for the war come from?” Soldiers will want to know, “For whom and what are they fighting? For whose interests are they dying?” Therefore, Putin, Patrushev, Belousov, and others, completely disconnected from the people, standing above all classes, are already thinking about future unrest. They are already starting to fear the demands of the people. This question is poisonous. And it is not yet raised within Russia; it is raised among the entire European, American, and English bourgeoisie. These representatives of financial-industrial capital and the bourgeoisie no longer believe in the regime and its stability, they no longer want to lend it money from Arab and Asian markets, but at the same time, they refuse to disrupt the existing “public order” in Russia. What is happening now can be called speculation on peace. They think that “peace” will save Russia from popular unrest and save the semi-tsarist regime from total collapse. The speculators are putting pressure on the Russian government by refusing loans, knowing that the “Russian Tsar” has no more resources to continue the war. Wall Street is using its power – the power of the money bag. They want a moderate bourgeois approach, they want to lure the Russian government to their side, which would oppose China, and force its people to believe in the threat of Asian dominance and “communist danger.” Secondly, this police state government will have to push Europe towards militarization, increasing purchases of military goods from American corporations. These two points are key among many others. The bourgeoisie of all countries, despite national differences—American stockbrokers, French aristocracy, English elites, German capitalists, and Russian oligarchs—are increasingly uniting under the influence of rapidly developing events into one bourgeois anti-popular alliance to avoid social revolutionary unrest in both Russia and Europe. Part of the Russian bourgeoisie, especially banks oriented towards international markets and Western investments, is pressing for an immediate end to the war, contrary to industrial and energy oligarchs who support the continuation of the war. Certain political, military, and power elites support the continuation of the war, as it serves as a tool for consolidating their power within the country. Financial capital, as part of the ruling capital in Russia, supports an immediate cessation of the war and the start of peace negotiations with Ukraine through American mediation. The working class of Russia, like workers in other countries, desires peace, but not peace achieved through peaceful agreements that aim to preserve the existing order, but a peace that is only possible through social revolutionary changes. Workers know: when Trump talks about his intentions to return the money invested in supporting Ukraine [Stand with Ukraine!], they understand that it is the Russian people, specifically Russian workers, who will pay for it, as they have long been living under increasing hardship.
Those who defend the war, those who actively support the ongoing fighting, are fully aware of the benefits they gain and thus diligently conceal the true reasons for the war. The secret deals made between the Russian government and its Western partners remain hidden from the people. These deals are kept under lock and key while workers are forced to pay for the debts imposed on them and for decisions made in the high offices of power.
Negotiations will be lengthy. The negotiator will be Kirill Dmitriev, who spent almost a quarter of his life in America, received his education there, and is married to Putin’s daughter’s friend. He will negotiate, gaining time, courting all the castes and groups of the Russian oligarchy, trying to keep everything as it is in Russia—starting from recruiting students into the army, sending dissidents to the military, arresting “undesirable” individuals, and repressing the already non-existent free media in Russia. Foolish liberals will take the bait, and some are already sacrificing everything in the hope of returning to the way of life they had in the 2010s. The international union of the moderate conservative bourgeoisie can only be countered by one force: the international union of the revolutionary working class. For this, the Russian working class needs its own labor movement and its own party. This party, in terms of political solidarity, must be connected with the working political parties of Europe, America, and England. As for the practical side of the matter and revolutionary initiative, everything depends on the Russian working class and the success of its collective democratic action in a decisive struggle alongside the urban and rural masses, the deceived soldiers and officers, and the intellectuals who have not sold out to the regime. The working masses must realize their strength and their right to fight. Only mass resistance, unity, and determination can change the course imposed from above and return power to the people.
Authors of the Article
Catherine Kirelina and Alex Zarin
Publication Date: February 17, 2025
Published by The “Eastern Post” London, United Kingdom, 2025.
